| Canadian spending will ward off recession |
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| Written by Tom Philp | |
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OTTAWA – The Conference Board of Canada issued an economic forecast Monday, stating its belief that a healthy job market and lots of disposable cash will help Canada avoid the recessionary pressures being felt in the United States.
While down from the board's 2.8 January forecast, a growth appraisal of 2.2 per cent for 2008 is still well above the current private sector consensus of 1.5 per cent, and some projections that Canada will inevitably follow its neighbour to the south Conference Board economist Pedro Antunes said there's too much "doom and gloom out there," given Canada's economic strength in terms of commodities, employment growth, low inflation and rising salaries. "Despite the fact the U.S. economy is slowing down and our export sector is losing out, when we look at what's been driving the economy it's been very much a domestic phenomenon, which means it's good for employment, it's good for wage gains ... people should not be too concerned in Canada." The Conference Board says commodity prices for major exports such as oil, minerals and wheat will continue to remain strong in 2008, although the state of Canada’s domestic economy lies largely in the hands of every-day consumers. Record Canadian employment, wages rising at more than four per cent annually, and falling interest rates should prompt Canadians to spend freely throughout the year, the Board said. "Canada's household sector seems oblivious to the concerns that the slowdown will spread north," said Antunes. "As 2008 goes on, we expect that households will continue to spend strongly this year." The Conference Board also predicts Canadian growth will rise to three per cent in 2009 and to 3.1 per cent in 2010. |
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